🔋Groundbreaking Tech
The race for advanced geothermal energy is on, the next best thing to nuclear power for baseload emissions free energy.
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With climate change and energy policy as a high priority for nations around the world, the race to develop clean and renewable energy is on. In Europe and the US, wind and solar have been the technologies of choice as traditional nuclear power is not politically favorable. With worldwide oil demand yet to show signs of decreasing, I have discussed the trend in the US is one of decreasing coal usage in favor of natural gas and perhaps advanced nuclear reactors in the future. With hydroelectricity constrained geographically, biomass hardly a renewable strategy in my opinion, and fusion still a pipe dream, there are few other electricity generating options left. One such option not garnering as much attention is geothermal energy.
What Is It?
Geothermal energy is where most commonly water is pumped down into the earth into a hydrothermal reservoir or horizontally drilled well where it absorbs heat naturally from the earth. Steam rises up to power a turbine and generator producing electricity. There are a number of these systems in place in US including California, Oregon, Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii, and more western neighbors. Elsewhere in the world, Kenya, Iceland, Philippines, El Salvador, and New Zealand, Turkey are countries with either large amounts of geothermal or get a large amount of their energy from geothermal.
Since sites with naturally hot water for these traditional systems are geographically dependent, newer advanced systems drilling deeper, using heat from surrounding rock, and using other liquids where there is hot underground rock locations are in the early stages of commercialization. Companies are still in the startup stage getting funding from venture capital, other companies, or the government and have not commercial operations attached to the grid yet.
Pros/Cons
The number one pro is that geothermal is emission-free baseload power similar to nuclear. With capacity factor of 71%, it is easily the second best energy source along this metric allowing there to be little doubt about grid reliability issues. Further, geothermal can be dispatched anytime, so even if it wasn’t run 24/7 it could be used to support wind/solar energy deficits.
Advanced geothermal is less geographically constrained than other clean technologies like wind and solar. Eventually, most of the US could stand to benefit. Further the powerplants are smaller than other types of power plants and do not take up as much room as large wind and solar farms for example.
The first con ironically is that traditional hydrothermal systems are still geographically dependent in terms of where the underground resources lay. Further, the time scale in which advanced systems can access deep rock resources economically may present challenges. In the US, the top/hottest resources are located in the west, so unless technology was built to scale, much of the country would be uneconomical for a while as well.
Some evidence to suggest there is seismic activity when injecting/resurfacing liquid in the ground. While this can be controlled and is minor, it is likely that this will be a common concern. Monitoring seismic activity is common in the industry while proving the technology.
Costs are one reason this technology is not powering our world. Current drilling technology limits the ability to economically drill deep enough to access the hot rock past certain depths. Drilling can account for up to half of the total cost of these projects in the current environment.
Drilling Solutions
The US has vast geothermal resources, theoretically being able to power the entire world, however drilling costs remain a challenge. As you drill further down into the earth, the geology changes at varying depths based on location and the rock tends to change into harder and more dense rock types. Typical drilling technology employed by the oil/gas industry is not optimized for harder rock and would be cost and resource prohibitive.
The department of energy and funds from the infrastructure act are providing some funding for research in novel drilling techniques. Occidental Petroleum is mainly an oil/gas company that is a beneficiary and working on this problem while leveraging their current drilling expertise. Geysers Power Company is working to develop new drill bits for the harder rock. Both companies are working with national and university labs to achieve the slated goal of 25% improvement in drilling rates.
Quaise is another company working on tackling the drilling problem. When the hard crystalline rock is reached, they replace conventional drill bits with millimeter wave technology, similar to microwaves. Like other technologies coming out of academia, the supply chain for some equipment, like the gyrotrons they use, tend to be scarce and expensive until more suppliers arise to fill demand.
Pilot Projects
Fervo has claimed a breakthrough in their 3.5MW pilot scale operation in Nevada. Using sensing tools and horizontal drilling techniques, they claim to have shown commercial viability of their advanced geothermal energy technology. The company has been permitting six other sites in the western US. This project in particular will connect to the grid this summer and supply electricity to Google for their data centers.
XQS is another company that is working on thermally conductive materials as a replacement for water. This would allow for greater heat transfer and more efficient geothermal systems overall. While they have no wells in the ground, they have an above ground pilot project to test their technology.
Sage Geosystems is working on an “earth battery” where they pump water into a well and then release the pressure to be used at times when wind/solar are not adequate. While this solution would probably not scale as well as a system that could provide baseload energy, there could be use for this system as energy storage until the technology is proven out or if the technology doesn’t progress meaningfully. The company has tested varying amounts of pumped water and results are promising so far.
Geothermal is a natural diversification step for oil/gas companies as they have expertise in drilling unlike other technologies like nuclear, wind, or solar. BP and Chevron have made investments in another geothermal startup called Eavor with a demonstration projects in Alberta and panned pilot projects in California and Germany. There are a number of geothermal startups, all of which I cannot cover, here are some of the top startups by funding.
Conclusion
The DOE currently estimates that there could be 90GW of geothermal capacity by 2050, a far off prediction that could go wildly in either direction from that in my view. Regardless, the energy source is limitless underground and can provide baseload carbon free power. With advancements in drilling technology and supply chains, geothermal is a top option for electricity in the future in my opinion. Unless major hurdles I mention somehow plague the industry, advanced geothermal only stands to grow from its infant stage today. Until next week,
-Grayson
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