🔋Nuclear Now - Pt. 1

Uranium mining, enrichment, and plant construction paint a picture of a lagging US in the current landscape.

Jun 14, 2023

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At this point I’m no stranger to writing on the topic of nuclear energy. I have previously written about French policy, trends in nuclear energy, global policy/sentiment, disaster safety profile , and German policy. Through a complicated history, it appears that most of the world is trending into increasing acceptance and support of nuclear energy. To be upfront to any new readers and has hopefully come through in my previous work, I too share this positive outlook on the technology and am skeptical of any energy transition plan absent nuclear energy.

Luckily, even with the confusing political signaling it seems even western countries keen on solving the energy transition with renewables are likewise pursuing nuclear energy as part of the solution. Those knowledgeable on the nuclear industry will of course know that this statement is only partially true and full of ambiguity so I reserve the right to expound on that in another piece. For now, I will point to last weeks Atlantic Declaration between the US and UK in support of the technology. The purpose is to facilitate international deployment of nuclear energy on their terms and develop end to end uranium fuel cycles not dependent on Russia.

Currently the US has by far the most nuclear energy generation, followed by China, France, Russia, and South Korea. When it comes to under plants under construction, China and Russia make up 70% of new reactors (110 total). 33 of China/Russia’s reactors are being built in countries outside their borders, indicating global influence in the sector. Some of these countries include Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, Pakistan, and Argentina.

As far as uranium mining goes it is dominated by Kazakhstan, with the next highest countries being Canada, Namibia, and Australia (full list below). After sanctions on Russian for the invasion of Ukraine, the bifurcation of the world’s resources is increasing. Spheres of influence will determine who preferentially gets certain resources going forward and with the geopolitical disagreements and structural underinvestment in natural resources in previous years play a role and bringing about the concern over strategic resources. Kazakhstan has agreements with Russia and China which secure its supply to them. This realistically leaves Canada and Australia the main secure supply of uranium for the United States. Currently 90+% of uranium in imported; 35 percent from Kazakhstan, 15 percent from Canada, and 14 percent from both Australia and Russia. Getting rid of Russia and a reduction from Kazakhstan in that equation would be massive.

Enrichment capacity tells a slightly better story for the west. While Russia remains the dominant player, there is significant capacity in in western countries that the US can rely on in Europe and with domestic capabilities. Ironic to see Germany with uranium enrichment capacity but no nuclear plants to send it to anymore.

The US used to be the dominant global producer of Uranium for decades, but since the 80s has reduced its domestic production to near zero. With the outlook for domestic mining of battery or rare earths metals bleak, the same can be said for uranium. This trend is not likely to change unless there are some major changes in policy and regulation.

HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is the enriched uranium required for advanced reactors on the horizon. Currently, only Russia and the United States produced it and US supply is made by the down-blending of existing HEU (high-enriched uranium) stockpiles. The availability for the purpose of reactors is expected until around 2035-2040 under these conditions. Again, this is an unsustainable trend and reliant on Russian imports. Advanced nuclear in the US should will not fare well without a source of fuel.

Based on the data, we can start to see why US/UK agreement I mentioned makes sense. Both countries are concerned about the uranium supply security in general, the agreement could also be beneficial from the enriched uranium side. Also, like I’ve shown before, the US is ever-concerned with its geopolitical influence. Here, the influence Russia has not only on its own supply of uranium, but the rest of the world in terms of reactors and uranium is huge. Apart from the legacy nuclear reactors and advanced reactor research, the current uranium mining, enrichment, and reactor construction picture points to a lagging US in the nuclear energy space. Next week I will look at the future prospects for these areas for the US and abroad. Until then,

-Grayson

Figure references - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

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