Ray Dalio and George Friedman have been incorporating aspects of this in the last year or two. Ray also adds an additional 3 cycles that are all coinciding currently. I dare say we haven't begun the 'digging in' process yet, not with extreme politics still on the forefront and a massive unpaid federal debt. Nobody knows what the Black Swan/topping point will be. The situation with Iran, with major players now taking sides, is one of many scenarios.
There seems to be a lot of crazy things happening right now, which fits the fourth turning framework. It becomes very difficult like you said to foresee what the turning point will be. I wasn't in the markets in 2008, there were even people who knew housing was screwed, but they probably didn't know Lehman in particular was going to be the trigger.
Ray Dalio and George Friedman have been incorporating aspects of this in the last year or two. Ray also adds an additional 3 cycles that are all coinciding currently. I dare say we haven't begun the 'digging in' process yet, not with extreme politics still on the forefront and a massive unpaid federal debt. Nobody knows what the Black Swan/topping point will be. The situation with Iran, with major players now taking sides, is one of many scenarios.
There seems to be a lot of crazy things happening right now, which fits the fourth turning framework. It becomes very difficult like you said to foresee what the turning point will be. I wasn't in the markets in 2008, there were even people who knew housing was screwed, but they probably didn't know Lehman in particular was going to be the trigger.