Renewables have a significantly higher resource requirement than current forms of electricity production, corroborating lower energy return on energy invested metrics.
Thanks for the interesting read. But it does seem to suffer from the "things will remain as they are" assumption. Do you really think that's the case? Just one example, the enormous shift away from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries to more lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) based ones just in the last 2-3 years. That comes with other pros/cons, but technology replacement and innovation is such a huge part of the battery space that it seems a bit shortsighted not to address that here.
"At the end of the day, either the supply of key resources are brought online, demand is decreased, or the price structurally increases." Or the technology evolves to use cheaper materials, or improves the use of the current ones, or creates new/better anode and cathode materials, etc. Granted that's hard to quantify or predict, but we've seen it already and I wouldn't be so confident that we are in for higher metal prices into the long future.
Great point, it's extremely difficult to predict the future. LFP, Na-ion, solid-state, other stationary storage solutions are all technologies I've written about and can help alleviate this issue. While this is correct and new anode tech could help us take another step past the approaching theoretical limit of traditional Li-ion, we've seen huge economies of scale for batteries achieved in the backdrop of cheap energy and low interest rates. It may be more of a challenge to maintain these improvements given the new economic environment we find ourselves in.
Another things I didn't mention here but have talked about before is the debt/increase in money supply which leads to debasement relative to hard assets like metals over time. Both of these additional factors here lead me to suspect higher prices to come. This is just where my analysis lies, and I very well could be wrong.
It would be amazing if other technologies took over the stationary storage side, and we split LFP, solid-state, and Na-ion in EVs, while reducing vehicle size/perhaps some PHEVs, and now you have alleviated a lot of demand. The question then arises can all this happen before 2030. As of now I am skeptical the technology advancements can completely save the day in the timeframe the government wants and many of the estimates of supply/demand take place.
Thanks for the comment, very important points and considerations.
While we always admire the technology curve, as newer technologies arrive, battery technology seems to now be long in tooth. Way back when, I thought optical storage would push away magnetics but hard drives simply continue to improve by rather large increments. Not so sure that is possible with battery chemistry where the fundamentals are well understood. The material input needs remain daunting to get to required scale.
Solid state batteries should at least help the lithium supply problem. A popularity shift to smaller cars might help instead of dragging around so much unused capacity like we currently do, at least in the US.
Yeah, based on higher energy density. It also depends on the anode, yes for silicon, but if lithium metal anode is achieved then there becomes a new high end Li metal market.
The problem with smaller cars is that the US seems to not be too interested, at least not yet. The trend is bigger more expensive vehicles. Just yesterday I saw a tweet about a cheap and small Toyota truck that's actually illegal in the US currently.
There are many truths in that article, worth a read. OTOH, technology shifts of those S-curves are quite difficult to forecast. Whether the investments take place in moving those curves is always a question.
Thanks for the interesting read. But it does seem to suffer from the "things will remain as they are" assumption. Do you really think that's the case? Just one example, the enormous shift away from nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries to more lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) based ones just in the last 2-3 years. That comes with other pros/cons, but technology replacement and innovation is such a huge part of the battery space that it seems a bit shortsighted not to address that here.
"At the end of the day, either the supply of key resources are brought online, demand is decreased, or the price structurally increases." Or the technology evolves to use cheaper materials, or improves the use of the current ones, or creates new/better anode and cathode materials, etc. Granted that's hard to quantify or predict, but we've seen it already and I wouldn't be so confident that we are in for higher metal prices into the long future.
Great point, it's extremely difficult to predict the future. LFP, Na-ion, solid-state, other stationary storage solutions are all technologies I've written about and can help alleviate this issue. While this is correct and new anode tech could help us take another step past the approaching theoretical limit of traditional Li-ion, we've seen huge economies of scale for batteries achieved in the backdrop of cheap energy and low interest rates. It may be more of a challenge to maintain these improvements given the new economic environment we find ourselves in.
Another things I didn't mention here but have talked about before is the debt/increase in money supply which leads to debasement relative to hard assets like metals over time. Both of these additional factors here lead me to suspect higher prices to come. This is just where my analysis lies, and I very well could be wrong.
It would be amazing if other technologies took over the stationary storage side, and we split LFP, solid-state, and Na-ion in EVs, while reducing vehicle size/perhaps some PHEVs, and now you have alleviated a lot of demand. The question then arises can all this happen before 2030. As of now I am skeptical the technology advancements can completely save the day in the timeframe the government wants and many of the estimates of supply/demand take place.
Thanks for the comment, very important points and considerations.
While we always admire the technology curve, as newer technologies arrive, battery technology seems to now be long in tooth. Way back when, I thought optical storage would push away magnetics but hard drives simply continue to improve by rather large increments. Not so sure that is possible with battery chemistry where the fundamentals are well understood. The material input needs remain daunting to get to required scale.
Appreciate the thoughts! Good points to think about.
Solid state batteries should at least help the lithium supply problem. A popularity shift to smaller cars might help instead of dragging around so much unused capacity like we currently do, at least in the US.
Yeah, based on higher energy density. It also depends on the anode, yes for silicon, but if lithium metal anode is achieved then there becomes a new high end Li metal market.
The problem with smaller cars is that the US seems to not be too interested, at least not yet. The trend is bigger more expensive vehicles. Just yesterday I saw a tweet about a cheap and small Toyota truck that's actually illegal in the US currently.
I saw an article too about the 10K Toyota truck! Bare bones though, not even a tachometer.
Hmm. I read your article immediately after reading "The Eight Deadly Sins of Analyzing the Energy Transition". You may have to go to confession! ;)
https://substack.com/profile/29309346-mike-starr/note/c-43321616?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=hg78i
We shall see ;) Thanks for the article, maybe I can make my own list.
There are many truths in that article, worth a read. OTOH, technology shifts of those S-curves are quite difficult to forecast. Whether the investments take place in moving those curves is always a question.