Model Portfolio: June 2026
Corrections in stocks and metals warrant some risk management.
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The model portfolio was made public in July 2025. It has 5 main components: stocks, bonds, cash, real assets, and alternative assets. Last month’s performance has been:
After the market’s meteoric rise over the last two months, it is in a corrective process. We got a 20% advance, followed by a 5% pullback. As you’re reading this, the market is trying to decide whether to go back to the highs or continue the correction.
Even if the market isn’t racing the way it was, the overall positioning is dangerously bullish, with near record levels of margin debt. The Gray Area portfolio outperformed the struggling market in the first quarter and is up a healthy 4.46% year to date with lower risk.
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I will continue to provide a preview of two of the positions in the portfolio.
Natural Gas Companies (FCG) - 5.4%
Natural gas and oil have been in a corrective posture and sold off further in June. We added energy exposure before the Iran conflict began on technical and fundamental grounds.
This portfolio position is up 12.23% total, despite the recent selling pressure. As long as FCG holds its low at $26, we could see an 18-30% move to new local highs. An alternative count that is more immediately bearish would be a pullback to ~$15. Both scenarios are quite bullish long-term technically and fundamentally. The short term is more difficult to predict, with oil news headlines unpredictable.
Uranium Miners (URNM) - 4.5% → 2%
The idea behind uranium is that it will be an important aspect of our energy future, and real assets should offer true diversification from both stocks and bonds. Our position is up 20.03% despite the recent selling pressure.
Uranium prices have been moving similarly to precious metals. Managing risk in positions is crucial. In April, we reduced in anticipation of further correction, which was prudent in hindsight. Now, price has built a corrective channel with moving average and momentum not giving any signals to disrespect the trend yet. We identified a potential ABC down to 34-41 for a while, and it looks ever more likely that may be the outcome.
While a good long-term hold, there may be better places to buy. We are reducing the position size from 4.5% to 2%.
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