I hope everyone is having a great holiday season! Since this week is for spending with family, I don’t have a subject piece today. Instead, let’s look back on 2023 and highlight some of my top articles of the year.
This is my 52nd article this year meaning I’ve managed one a week and we have grown from 334 subscribers all the way to 1120 so far. This newsletter is just under 2 years old and I want to thank everyone who takes the time to read and has subscribed!
Most Likes
Bye-Bye Bolt was my most liked article in 2023 with 12. It was about Chevrolet’s discontinuation of the Bolt EV. The trend for many automakers is for large and expensive vehicles. This trend presses the consumer and may have been sustainable for a time. With the economy and consumers dialing back, this trend may not be sustainable. On top of that, the price of EVs even with tax credits is the average consumer's biggest contention with buying an EV and the larger vehicle trend doesn’t help this. Finally, a larger vehicle means larger battery packs. With EV targets from the White House and automakers choosing monster cars over small affordable ones, that means more stress on the battery commodity complex. Click below to read the full piece.
Most Comments
I like when people comment and so far it’s been constructive with people bringing up solid points. That’s So Metal received the most comments and it was a continuation of my discussion on the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) metric. The current energy transition narrative relies on wind, solar, and Li-ion batteries. The quantity of materials going into these technologies is far greater than the current energy and vehicle fleet. On top of that, many of the materials do not have the supply chain or even plans to develop the supply chain necessary to meet the aggressive climate goals. This leads me to three possible conclusions; supply is brought online, demand goes down, or prices of metals go higher. Since supply is going to struggle to keep up, either people/the government won’t be as steadfast in its commitment to the energy transition, or the prices/inflation required to make it happen will be obvious.
Personal Favorites
Certain topics captivate my interest more than others. I was particularly passionate and did a lot of extra research when writing these articles.
Debt Pt. 3: Sovereign Default - The whole debt series covers the crazy and unsustainable US federal spending as a percentage of the underlying economy. There are only five possible ways to solve this problem, and one is the most realistic.
Debt Pt. 4: Populism - The economy is doing fine? The working class says otherwise. Political polarization manifests in populism with some nasty historical consequences.
Lithium Takeover - Chile moved to nationalize the lithium industry. Historical precedence, central planning vs free market, and economics all come together in this piece. Could a greedy government be making a mistake with one of its vital strategic assets, especially with the opposite taking place in Argentina?
Man's Search For Meaning - Philosophers often discuss the vital role of meaning in our lives. Governments are hijacking our sense of meaning through inflation with far-reaching consequences.
Great Depression - It seems like the boom/bust business cycle theory is busted. Have governments truly discovered the formula to avoid economic depressions like the 1930s?
Highlights
I’ve covered a broad range of topics in 2023, here are some of them!
Battery Materials
White Gold - Lithium production, reserves, and North American outlook.
Under The Sea - Can the energy transition capitalize on deep sea mining?
Geopolitics
Mine Oh Mine - The US military denies Chinese investment in Canadian mines and funds them on its own.
Here’s Your President - Not Russia, not Israel, but Peru is where the US sent troops in 2023.
Renewables
Shift Happens - What are the solutions to intermittency?
Wind Woes - Offshore wind took a beating in 2023, the 30GW target is at risk.
Eight More Sins Of Analyzing The Energy Transition - The energy transition is not as simple as it seems.
Nuclear
SMR or SMH - Module nuclear reactors face some roadblocks, what could the technology do?
Nuclear Tomorrow Pt. 2 - The world has very different outlooks for the nuclear industry.
From C To U - How the US might replace coal with carbon-free energy.
Economy
Dirty Jobs - The energy transition has a “trades” problem.
Rat Race - UAW started in the Great Depression, what unions mean for the economy
Battery Technology
Aldi-Brand Batteries - A big year for sodium-ion batteries.
Battery Factories - Battery manufacturing is popping up everywhere, what does the landscape look like?
Electric Vehicles
Go Fund Me - Battery factories, follow the money.
Toyota Trouble - Toyota has a contrarian EV outlook, will they be left to the wayside?
Payback Time - ICE vs EV
-Grayson
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